The Martin Chronicles: The Odds on Tebow

Posted at 1:27 pm on 06/25/2015 by Buddy Martin

By Buddy Martin April 25, 2015

I wouldn’t bet against Tebow this time. He’s been working so hard at improving his throwing motions that his consultant/coach Tom House says you’d think he was the No. 1 quarterback for an NFL club.


Warning: This column contains material that may be offensive to some people. Read at your own risk.


Let’s be honest here:  We know that Sandy Hook never happened and the massacre was faked by the anti-gun movement.

That Rosie O’Donnell recently made the decision to get the ISIS flag tattooed on her lower back.

And that people are currently signing a petition which would give Social Security benefits to illegal aliens.

OK, then, so none of above is true.

But how about this crazy rumor? Tim Tebow has signed a one-year deal with the Eagles to play quarterback in the NFL!

I know, it sounds just about as wild. But check out the authenticity on Snopes.com in case you think it’s a hoax.

In nearly a half century of covering sports, I’ve never covered a more polarizing figure than Tebow. Maybe Muhammad Ali?

The story of Tim Tebow’s obsession to play professional football is a compelling one and the obstacles that keep knocking him down are befuddling to me. Every time I think he’s turned the corner, Tebow gets bowled over by a Mack truck. And when I think he’s history, along comes a new chapter.

Thing is, I’ve pretty much been there for the writing of about 90 percent of all those early Tebow chapters because I covered the Florida Gators and witnessed every snap he took for four seasons. And when he went to Denver, I hooked up an NFL package and watched almost every play of his with the Broncos.

I’m not coming from a perspective of a guy who watched a little film or a couple of games. I interviewed him in a group or individually over 40 times. I’ve written probably several hundred thousand words on Tebow. I know me some Tebow.

And finally – although it has no relevance to the case of whether he can play in the NFL – I can make a case for Tebow being one of the five best players in college football history (but I won’t today).

He is massively strong, powerful in the legs, and gets by on average speed. His touch and his arm are good enough to make the NFL throws, but he still has to prove he can do it consistently, as well as learning to read NFL defenses.

In the four seasons he played under Urban Meyer, Florida went 48-7 with two national championships. Remember, he only took a handful of snaps under center, so he is still learning.

Why can’t any of that translate into the next level?

I’m not here to argue for or against Tebow. Full disclosure: I’ve always felt if he ever got in the right system under the right coach he could become a winner in the NFL. And may I remind you that when Tebow was thrust into the lineup for the Broncos, he took them to the playoffs and beat a pretty good Steelers team in playoffs.

Regardless of all that, there is no denying that:

1.   Tebow stirs the pot like Gordon Ramsay on Hell’s Kitchen.
2.   Tebow blends a demographic into the profile of the NFL fan that’s otherwise untapped.
3.   Nobody blows up the Internet or move merchandise like jerseys and DirecTV NFL packages like Tebow.

So will he make it this time?

If nothing else, let’s raise our glasses to Chip Kelly for having the courage to give Tebow another Mulligan – not out of sympathy, but because he thinks the Heisman Trophy winner can play in his system.

What are the odds?

Right now, you can place a bet on Bovada.lv on whether Tebow will be on the Eagle roster opening day. The odds are 5-2, which means you get $2.50 for every dollar wagered. Another way of looking at it: The odds are 4-1 against him on the money line, which means you have to bet  $4 to win $1. That means it’s an 80 percent chance against it.

Having said that, I wouldn’t bet against Tebow this time. He’s been working so hard at improving his throwing motions that his consultant/coach Tom House says you’d think he was the No. 1 quarterback for an NFL club.

House trains baseball pitchers and quarterbacks on mechanics, which is what he did for Tebow, who started way behind the curve.

"When he showed up here, he was 10,000 reps behind any other NFL quarterback," House told Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman. "He'd never been given a tool kit on how to fix [his mechanics].”

I resorted to the good old unscientific, random Facebook page poll, asking readers to weigh in on the Tebow issue.

I was surprised nobody mentioned his success in Denver and that it took Peyton Manning to knock him out of the box, or that the NFL desperately needs the Tebow story to help cleanse itself.”

Here some of their comments:

“I know if I'm coaching I find him a spot … I get the ball in his hands … he wears my jersey.” -- Rusty

“Chip Kelly's fast moving and complex offense is conducive to situational multi-QB play.” – Joe

“He's always been good enough. Just a victim of his own success and some over analyzed throwing motions that got way over blown. I believe in TT!” -- Mark

“I really hope he makes it but being out of that high level of competition for 3 years is tough to break back into. Not too many (if any I can remember) have come back after a 3 year layoff so the odds are against him.”—Woody

“The NFL rules committee may vote to eliminate kicking the extra point at its meeting next month. If so, teams would be forced to "go for two" after every touchdown. Tebow = KA-CHING!!” –- Bob

“Faith and will power!”--Mary Alice

HEART!”—Brian

“It reminds me of Tiger Woods in a way. Golf is a bit more interesting when he's in the mix.” – James


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